Tracing environmental Kuznets curves: unveiling the interplay of inequality, urbanization, GDP and emissions in BRICS nations

In light of environmental challenges, the BRICS countries have stepped to the forefront of economic progress versus environmental sustainability debate. Not only has energy consumption increased rapidly in these countries, but the economic progress and urbanization, mainly driven by intensive fossil fuel production, have also led to higher levels of income inequality. The dynamics of the interplay between economic growth, urbanization, and income inequality on the one hand and environmental sustainability on the other have yet to be fully understood in the BRICS context. This paper aims to contribute to the ongoing debate by assessing a combination of three Environmental Kuznets Curves (EKC) based on the GDPpc-emissions nexus, the income inequality-emissions nexus, and the urbanization-emissions nexus. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADRL) and Panel Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS) models, we find an inverted U-shape EKC between GDP and carbon emissions, an inverted U-shaped EKC between income inequality and carbon emissions, and a U-shaped EKC between urbanization and carbon emissions. The inverted EKC between GDPpc and carbon emissions suggests that in the long run sustainable carbon reduction is possible alongside economic growth, but urbanization’s U-shaped impact on emissions might hinder this. Moreover, the inverted U-shaped relationship between income inequality and carbon emissions indicates a potential long-run trade-off between reducing both inequality and carbon emissions. Factors behind this relationship may vary significantly and include institutions-and country-specific factors, yet policymakers in the BRICS countries will do well attempting to better understand the dynamics behind urbanization and inequality as it will enable them to adopt more effective holistic policies aiming to improve energy efficiency, reduce fossil fuel dependence, and build economic systems contributing to faster economic growth, lower inequality and greater environmental sustainability.