Abstract
In the field of tourism forecasting, the application of time-varying parameters has been successful in forecasting arrivals taking into account the changing behavior of tourists. This article uses quarterly data to forecast intercontinental tourism demand for a long-haul, developing destination (South Africa) by applying time-varying parameters (TVP) to single equation estimates, and comparing these with vector autoregressive results. Ex-ante forecasts are done for tourist arrivals from various continents, and forecasting accuracy is evaluated by determining the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), the Mean Absolute Deviation/Mean ratio (MAD/mean), the percentage Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Theil's inequality coefficient. The results show that TVP do not always outperform other forecasting techniques.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 23-40 |
Number of pages | 18 |
Journal | Journal for Studies in Economics and Econometrics |
Volume | 36 |
Issue number | 1 |
Publication status | Published - 2012 |
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Economics and Econometrics