The impact of antiretroviral treatment on the relationship between HIV/AIDS and economic growth

Although there is sufficient evidence to suggest that HIV/AIDS impedes economic growth, there is limited evidence on the nature of the relationship in a setting characterised by scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART). Using data from nine provinces over the period 1995 to 2019, we examine the impact of ART on the HIV/AIDS-real GDP per capita relationship in South Africa. We employ both linear and non-linear econometric approaches. Our results show that ART mitigates the negative effects of HIV/AIDS on real GDP per capita by increasing worker productivity. Furthermore, we find a U-shaped nonlinear relationship between HIV/AIDS and real GDP per capita that is conditional to the level of ART coverage. We also find that the impact of HIV/AIDS on real GDP per capita is higher in men compared to women. Our findings suggest that HIV testing and treatment should be expanded to enhance productivity, and men should be prioritised.