Support vector machines versus back propagation algorithm for oil price prediction

Adnan Khashman, Nnamdi I. Nwulu

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

28 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The importance of crude oil in the world economy has made it imperative that efficient models be designed for predicting future prices. Neural networks can be used as prediction models, thus, in this paper we investigate and compare the use of a support vector machine and a back propagation neural network for the task of predicting oil prices. We also present a novel method of representing the oil price data as input data to the neural networks by defining input economic and seasonal indicators which could affect the oil price. The oil price database is publicly available online and can be obtained from the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price dataset spanning a period of 24 years. Experimental results suggest the neural networks can be efficiently used to predict future oil prices with minimal computational expense.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationAdvances in Neural Networks - 8th International Symposium on Neural Networks, ISNN 2011
Pages530-538
Number of pages9
EditionPART 3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2011
Externally publishedYes
Event8th International Symposium on Neural Networks, ISNN 2011 - Guilin, China
Duration: 29 May 20111 Jun 2011

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
NumberPART 3
Volume6677 LNCS
ISSN (Print)0302-9743
ISSN (Electronic)1611-3349

Conference

Conference8th International Symposium on Neural Networks, ISNN 2011
Country/TerritoryChina
CityGuilin
Period29/05/111/06/11

Keywords

  • Back Propagation Algorithm
  • Crude Oil
  • Neural Networks
  • Price Prediction
  • Radial Basis Function
  • Support Vector Machines

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Theoretical Computer Science
  • General Computer Science

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