Spatio-temporal dynamics of habitat quality explored with InVEST: The case of the Greater Limpopo Transfrontier Conservation Area

This study aimed to assess habitat quality within the Greater Limpopo Transfrontier Conservation Area (GLTFCA) and to explore the impact of anthropogenic and natural threats on biodiversity in this semi-arid savannah ecosystem. The research hypothesized that habitat quality deteriorated over time due to various associated threat factors such as artificial surfaces like roads, settlements, watering holes, agriculture, fire and natural threats like animal browsing. The study focused on GLTFCA, emphasizing the need for comprehensive assessments that consider both human-induced and natural factors affecting habitat quality. Utilizing the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, this study quantitatively evaluated habitat quality by integrating spatio-temporal dynamics from 1996 to 2023 with observed habitat threats. Results show that areas of high degradation increased from 1996 at 4.81% to 21.82% in 2023 with animal disruption and fire as the major contributing factors. Here, the remaining 78.2% retains a relatively moderate to high habitat quality for semi-arid ecosystems. Threat data revealed increasing trends overtime, with animal disruption rising from 12% in 1996 to 36% in 2023, fire incidents from 4.2% to 12.4%, road developments from 6% to 18% and watering holes notably increasing from 2006. Local indicator for spatial autocorrelation (LISA) revealed critical hotspots in the study area where conservation efforts should be prioritized to enhance biodiversity and ecosystem resilience. Findings of this study serve as a baseline tool for future habitat quality assessments and highlight the necessity of adaptive management approaches to combat biodiversity loss in semi-arid transboundary protected areas.