Short term wind speed forecasting and wind energy estimation: A case study of Rajasthan

Chinnu Mariam Baby; Kusum Verma; Rajesh Kumar

doi:10.1109/COMPTELIX.2017.8003978

Short term wind speed forecasting and wind energy estimation: A case study of Rajasthan

Chinnu Mariam Baby
, Kusum Verma
, Rajesh Kumar

Malaviya National Institute of Technology

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

8 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Wind power has increased in recent years to meet the growing energy demand. Accurate short term wind energy forecast is important for optimal scheduling of the wind farms. Increasing the accuracy can help the power system operators to increase the reliability of energy supply. A Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) Network is applied to predict hourly wind speed and power. Meteorological variables are taken as exogenous variables for wind speed prediction. Geographical area under study is Jaisalmer in Rajasthan. Wind data is obtained for this location from National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for one year. Comparison of the wind speed prediction of NARX model with linear regression and persistence model is also carried out. The performance of the test results is done using statistical error measurements like MAE, RMSE and MAPE. The results obtained with NARX network are found to be promising.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	2017 International Conference on Computer, Communications and Electronics, COMPTELIX 2017
Publisher	Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages	275-280
Number of pages	6
ISBN (Electronic)	9781509047086
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/COMPTELIX.2017.8003978
Publication status	Published - 7 Aug 2017
Externally published	Yes
Event	1st International Conference on Computer, Communications and Electronics, COMPTELIX 2017 - Jaipur, India Duration: 1 Jul 2017 → 2 Jul 2017

Publication series

Name	2017 International Conference on Computer, Communications and Electronics, COMPTELIX 2017

Conference

Conference	1st International Conference on Computer, Communications and Electronics, COMPTELIX 2017
Country/Territory	India
City	Jaipur
Period	1/07/17 → 2/07/17

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 7 Affordable and Clean Energy

Keywords

Forecasting
NARX Network
Persistence model linear regression
Wind power
Wind speed

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Computational Theory and Mathematics
Instrumentation
Computer Networks and Communications
Hardware and Architecture
Signal Processing
Computer Science Applications

Access to Document

10.1109/COMPTELIX.2017.8003978

Cite this

Baby, C. M., Verma, K., & Kumar, R. (2017). Short term wind speed forecasting and wind energy estimation: A case study of Rajasthan. In 2017 International Conference on Computer, Communications and Electronics, COMPTELIX 2017 (pp. 275-280). Article 8003978 (2017 International Conference on Computer, Communications and Electronics, COMPTELIX 2017). Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.. https://doi.org/10.1109/COMPTELIX.2017.8003978

Baby, Chinnu Mariam ; Verma, Kusum ; Kumar, Rajesh. / Short term wind speed forecasting and wind energy estimation : A case study of Rajasthan. 2017 International Conference on Computer, Communications and Electronics, COMPTELIX 2017. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2017. pp. 275-280 (2017 International Conference on Computer, Communications and Electronics, COMPTELIX 2017).

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title = "Short term wind speed forecasting and wind energy estimation: A case study of Rajasthan",

abstract = "Wind power has increased in recent years to meet the growing energy demand. Accurate short term wind energy forecast is important for optimal scheduling of the wind farms. Increasing the accuracy can help the power system operators to increase the reliability of energy supply. A Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) Network is applied to predict hourly wind speed and power. Meteorological variables are taken as exogenous variables for wind speed prediction. Geographical area under study is Jaisalmer in Rajasthan. Wind data is obtained for this location from National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for one year. Comparison of the wind speed prediction of NARX model with linear regression and persistence model is also carried out. The performance of the test results is done using statistical error measurements like MAE, RMSE and MAPE. The results obtained with NARX network are found to be promising.",

keywords = "Forecasting, NARX Network, Persistence model linear regression, Wind power, Wind speed",

author = "Baby, \{Chinnu Mariam\} and Kusum Verma and Rajesh Kumar",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2017 IEEE.; 1st International Conference on Computer, Communications and Electronics, COMPTELIX 2017 ; Conference date: 01-07-2017 Through 02-07-2017",

year = "2017",

month = aug,

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doi = "10.1109/COMPTELIX.2017.8003978",

language = "English",

series = "2017 International Conference on Computer, Communications and Electronics, COMPTELIX 2017",

publisher = "Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.",

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Baby, CM, Verma, K & Kumar, R 2017, Short term wind speed forecasting and wind energy estimation: A case study of Rajasthan. in 2017 International Conference on Computer, Communications and Electronics, COMPTELIX 2017., 8003978, 2017 International Conference on Computer, Communications and Electronics, COMPTELIX 2017, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., pp. 275-280, 1st International Conference on Computer, Communications and Electronics, COMPTELIX 2017, Jaipur, India, 1/07/17. https://doi.org/10.1109/COMPTELIX.2017.8003978

Short term wind speed forecasting and wind energy estimation: A case study of Rajasthan. / Baby, Chinnu Mariam; Verma, Kusum; Kumar, Rajesh.
2017 International Conference on Computer, Communications and Electronics, COMPTELIX 2017. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2017. p. 275-280 8003978 (2017 International Conference on Computer, Communications and Electronics, COMPTELIX 2017).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Short term wind speed forecasting and wind energy estimation

T2 - 1st International Conference on Computer, Communications and Electronics, COMPTELIX 2017

AU - Baby, Chinnu Mariam

AU - Verma, Kusum

AU - Kumar, Rajesh

PY - 2017/8/7

Y1 - 2017/8/7

N2 - Wind power has increased in recent years to meet the growing energy demand. Accurate short term wind energy forecast is important for optimal scheduling of the wind farms. Increasing the accuracy can help the power system operators to increase the reliability of energy supply. A Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) Network is applied to predict hourly wind speed and power. Meteorological variables are taken as exogenous variables for wind speed prediction. Geographical area under study is Jaisalmer in Rajasthan. Wind data is obtained for this location from National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for one year. Comparison of the wind speed prediction of NARX model with linear regression and persistence model is also carried out. The performance of the test results is done using statistical error measurements like MAE, RMSE and MAPE. The results obtained with NARX network are found to be promising.

AB - Wind power has increased in recent years to meet the growing energy demand. Accurate short term wind energy forecast is important for optimal scheduling of the wind farms. Increasing the accuracy can help the power system operators to increase the reliability of energy supply. A Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) Network is applied to predict hourly wind speed and power. Meteorological variables are taken as exogenous variables for wind speed prediction. Geographical area under study is Jaisalmer in Rajasthan. Wind data is obtained for this location from National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for one year. Comparison of the wind speed prediction of NARX model with linear regression and persistence model is also carried out. The performance of the test results is done using statistical error measurements like MAE, RMSE and MAPE. The results obtained with NARX network are found to be promising.

KW - Forecasting

KW - NARX Network

KW - Persistence model linear regression

KW - Wind power

KW - Wind speed

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85034657148

U2 - 10.1109/COMPTELIX.2017.8003978

DO - 10.1109/COMPTELIX.2017.8003978

M3 - Conference contribution

AN - SCOPUS:85034657148

T3 - 2017 International Conference on Computer, Communications and Electronics, COMPTELIX 2017

SP - 275

EP - 280

BT - 2017 International Conference on Computer, Communications and Electronics, COMPTELIX 2017

PB - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.

Y2 - 1 July 2017 through 2 July 2017

ER -

Baby CM, Verma K, Kumar R. Short term wind speed forecasting and wind energy estimation: A case study of Rajasthan. In 2017 International Conference on Computer, Communications and Electronics, COMPTELIX 2017. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. 2017. p. 275-280. 8003978. (2017 International Conference on Computer, Communications and Electronics, COMPTELIX 2017). doi: 10.1109/COMPTELIX.2017.8003978

Short term wind speed forecasting and wind energy estimation: A case study of Rajasthan

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

UN SDGs

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Access to Document

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Cite this