Short term wind speed forecasting and wind energy estimation: A case study of Rajasthan

Chinnu Mariam Baby, Kusum Verma, Rajesh Kumar

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

8 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Wind power has increased in recent years to meet the growing energy demand. Accurate short term wind energy forecast is important for optimal scheduling of the wind farms. Increasing the accuracy can help the power system operators to increase the reliability of energy supply. A Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) Network is applied to predict hourly wind speed and power. Meteorological variables are taken as exogenous variables for wind speed prediction. Geographical area under study is Jaisalmer in Rajasthan. Wind data is obtained for this location from National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for one year. Comparison of the wind speed prediction of NARX model with linear regression and persistence model is also carried out. The performance of the test results is done using statistical error measurements like MAE, RMSE and MAPE. The results obtained with NARX network are found to be promising.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2017 International Conference on Computer, Communications and Electronics, COMPTELIX 2017
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages275-280
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)9781509047086
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 7 Aug 2017
Externally publishedYes
Event1st International Conference on Computer, Communications and Electronics, COMPTELIX 2017 - Jaipur, India
Duration: 1 Jul 20172 Jul 2017

Publication series

Name2017 International Conference on Computer, Communications and Electronics, COMPTELIX 2017

Conference

Conference1st International Conference on Computer, Communications and Electronics, COMPTELIX 2017
Country/TerritoryIndia
CityJaipur
Period1/07/172/07/17

Keywords

  • Forecasting
  • NARX Network
  • Persistence model linear regression
  • Wind power
  • Wind speed

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computational Theory and Mathematics
  • Instrumentation
  • Computer Networks and Communications
  • Hardware and Architecture
  • Signal Processing
  • Computer Science Applications

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