Self-sufficiency, Disengagement and the BRI: Comparing the US, Brazil, and China in African Energy

In light of China’s BRI-induced energy needs against the attainment of energy self-sufficiency by Brazil and the US, this chapter compared rates of potential ‘disengagement’ by Brazil and the US from their energy source countries in Africa and whether this led to a market gap since closed by China. For the US, 2011, the year in which it became a net exporter of refined petroleum, was a major turning point for its mineral energy imports from all three African countries as the country began importing lower amounts of energy minerals from all three countries. Brazilian imports, on the other hand, declined from all three countries in 2009, the year following its achievement of self-sufficiency (2008). We also note a covariation in US, Brazilian, and PRC imports from the three countries on an annual basis as 9 out of 12 years under examination in Algeria all three countries moved in the same direction; the same covariation is noted for 8/12 years in Angola and 10/12 years in Nigeria. However, US imports rebounded in 2016, but at a substantially lower volume (>50%) than their pre-2011 levels. We therefore determine a relative disengagement by the US, a moderate but volatile rebound by Brazil and a consistency on the part of China. The covariations demonstrate that energy imports by China from Africa are not contingent on disengagement by the other major importers.