TY - GEN
T1 - Schedule risk analysis of railway projects using montecarlo simulation for improved project management
AU - Mabeba, Motlatso
AU - Pretorius, Jan Harm C.
AU - Pretorius, Leon
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 ISEC Press.
PY - 2018
Y1 - 2018
N2 - Railways have been used throughout history for the transportation of goods. Even though the inception of rail transport improved civilization, due to its inefficiencies, road transport is at present dominating the freight and logistics industry. Company A, which has the largest market share in the rail freight business, has embarked on projects to improve rail efficiencies by moving higher volumes of freight timeously. Most of the projects embarked on by Company A have failed largely due to the poor planning of the projects in the feasibility stages. Most of the planning schedules are overoptimistic and unrealistic making them unreliable and difficult to track. The scope of this study was to investigate the way in which planning schedules of Company A are developed by undertaking a schedule risk analysis on one of the planning schedules titled ‘Design of railway exchange yard’ and using Monte Carlo simulation to validate the schedule. If projects of Company A can be planned better, using schedule risk analysis, projects can become more successful and completed within the required time frame.
AB - Railways have been used throughout history for the transportation of goods. Even though the inception of rail transport improved civilization, due to its inefficiencies, road transport is at present dominating the freight and logistics industry. Company A, which has the largest market share in the rail freight business, has embarked on projects to improve rail efficiencies by moving higher volumes of freight timeously. Most of the projects embarked on by Company A have failed largely due to the poor planning of the projects in the feasibility stages. Most of the planning schedules are overoptimistic and unrealistic making them unreliable and difficult to track. The scope of this study was to investigate the way in which planning schedules of Company A are developed by undertaking a schedule risk analysis on one of the planning schedules titled ‘Design of railway exchange yard’ and using Monte Carlo simulation to validate the schedule. If projects of Company A can be planned better, using schedule risk analysis, projects can become more successful and completed within the required time frame.
KW - Critical path method
KW - PERT
KW - Schedule sensitivity index
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85116466128
U2 - 10.14455/isec.res.2018.124
DO - 10.14455/isec.res.2018.124
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:85116466128
SN - 9780996043755
SN - 9780996043779
T3 - Proceedings of International Structural Engineering and Construction
BT - Proceedings of International Structural Engineering and Construction
A2 - Shiau, Jim
A2 - Vimonsatit, Vanissorn
A2 - Singh, Amarjit
A2 - Yazdani, Siamak
PB - ISEC Press
T2 - 4th Australasia and South East Asia Conference on Structural Engineering and Construction, ASEA-SEC-04 2018
Y2 - 3 December 2018 through 5 December 2018
ER -