Rational counterfactuals and decision making: Application to interstate conflict

This chapter introduces the concept of rational counterfactuals which is an idea of identifying a counterfactual from the factual (whether perceived or real), and knowledge of the laws that govern the relationships between the antecedent and the consequent, that maximizes the attainment of the desired consequent. In counterfactual thinking factual statements like: ‘Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait and consequently George Bush declared war on Iraq’ and with its counterfactual being: ‘If Saddam Hussein did not invade Kuwait then George Bush would not have declared war on Iraq’. In this chapter in order to build rational counterfactuals neuro-fuzzy model and genetic algorithm are applied. The theory of rational counterfactuals is applied to identify the antecedent that gives the desired consequent necessary for rational decision making. The rational counterfactual theory is applied to identify the values of variables Allies, Contingency, Distance, Major Power, Capability, Democracy, as well as Economic Interdependency that give the desired consequent Peace.