Pathological Evaluation of Using Scenario Planning in Academic Theses Focusing on Tourism-Related Subjects

Given the increasing number of studies using the scenario planning (SP) approach, particularly in the field of tourism, the aim of the present study is to evaluate the challenges and deficiencies in theses that have employed Futures Studies (FS) using the SP method in the context of tourism, and then categorize these challenges into groups that describe them. Twenty-three in-depth interviews were carried out with university graduates, as well as university professors. Data analysis was performed using MAXQDA software. The results show the most important challenges of using this method include 1) inadequate knowledge of the students about FS research methods, 2) not knowing the nature of uncertainties, especially in the tourism context, 3) research topics being inconsistent with the needs of the Iranian tourism sector, and 4) the lack of facilities to share FS knowledge between the universities that are active in tourism area in Iran. Recommendations are provided to address these challenges.