Optimal control of dengue hemorrhagic fever model by classifying sex in West Java Province, Indonesia

Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is an infectious disease caused by the presence of the dengue virus that is spread worldwide regardless of age. An X-coded gene on the chromosome regulates the immune system. The gene can control the immune system which causes females to have higher amounts of CD4+ T cells and less susceptibility to inflammation, making them not easily infected with viruses. In this paper, we construct and analyze the model of DHF transmission by classifying the sex of human populations. The model parameters are estimated based on DHF data in West Java Province, Indonesia using the least-squares method. The results of the model analysis obtained two equilibria, namely the disease-free equilibrium (locally and globally asymptotically stable if) and the endemic equilibrium in special cases (globally asymptotically stable if). We then extend an optimal control model for dengue transmission, which includes fumigation and prevention as the control variables. The Pontryagin maximum principle is utilized to find the optimal control conditions. Next, based on the ICER calculation, implementing control in the form of a combination of fumigation and prevention is the best strategy in eliminating DHF cases and cost efficiency. We also suggest that prevention efforts should be differentiated between male and female due to the significant impact in eliminating DHF sufferers.