New Short Term Load Forecasting models based on growth rate scaling and simple averaging

Sreenu Sreekumar, Jatin Verma, A. Sujil, Rajesh Kumar

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Load Forecasting is the link joining the strategic power system operation with the almighty mathematic algorithms in order to bring greater reliability, efficiency and economy in the system. This paper brings two novel forecasting engines, named SYGRSA and SYGRSAWP, for Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF), i.e., load forecasting with time leads ranging from one day to one week. STLF itself plays a crucial role in the control and scheduling operations of a power system. Modern techniques have been used to improve the accuracy of existing load prediction models using proper feature selection and consideration of necessary factors. The proposed models combine similar day approach, growth rate scaling and averaging techniques. SYGRSAWP is an optimised form of SYGRSA. Both the models have the potential to handle large historical data in short period of time. Moreover, they show remarkable forecasting accuracy. Further, a comparison between the two models has been analysed.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2016 IEEE 6th International Conference on Power Systems, ICPS 2016
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)9781509001286
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 5 Oct 2016
Externally publishedYes
Event6th IEEE International Conference on Power Systems, ICPS 2016 - New Delhi, India
Duration: 4 Mar 20166 Mar 2016

Publication series

Name2016 IEEE 6th International Conference on Power Systems, ICPS 2016

Conference

Conference6th IEEE International Conference on Power Systems, ICPS 2016
Country/TerritoryIndia
CityNew Delhi
Period4/03/166/03/16

Keywords

  • Short Term Load Forecasting
  • Similar day Yearly Growth Rate Scaled Averaging (SYGRSA) Model
  • Similar day Yearly Growth Rate Scaled Averaging With Previous days (SYGRSAWP) Model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering
  • Control and Optimization

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