Navigating the energy transition dilemma in developing economies: An integrated multi-criteria framework to advance Sustainable Energy for All and the Mission 300 agenda

The global challenge of achieving sustainable energy access without system disruptions necessitates a pragmatic energy transition. Developing countries, exemplified by Tanzania in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), face a critical dilemma: balancing immediate energy supply expansion, often via conventional generation, with the long-term shift to clean sources for sustainable and equitable development. This study explored suitable energy generation technologies for achieving sustainable and resilient energy access within this context. A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), employing the Integrated Sustainability and Resilience Framework (ISREF) and Fuzzy TOPSIS to handle uncertainty in decision-making, was applied to assess various options. The results identified solar (0.760), hydro (0.706), and natural gas (0.623) as high-performing energy sources, significantly outperforming nuclear power (0.216) in closeness to the ideal solution. Sensitivity analysis across 14 cases confirmed that incorporating policies based on sustainability and resilience (SR) criteria enhances the reliability and robustness of energy policy outcomes. Consequently, findings highlight that although no single technology offers a perfect solution, a diversified power mix is crucial for achieving sustainable and resilient energy access. This mix should include various renewable and cleaner non-renewable sources, with high to moderate performances such as solar, wind, natural gas, geothermal, and bioenergy prioritised in descending order. The disparity between these findings and existing national projections in the case study suggests that SSA countries should reassess their energy priorities beyond 2030, leveraging this study's integrated perspective to optimise long-term energy system sustainability and security.