Load forecasting using statistical time series model in a medium voltage distribution network

Hulisani Matsila, Pitshou Bokoro

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

19 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In this paper, the suitability of statistical time series technique in the forecasting of load demand of a public hospital facility is tested. The hospital facility is supplied from a medium voltage distribution network. Historical data recorded over a period of three months are used for this purpose. The R-Studio package software is sourced to examine the shape of the time series pattern. The Box-Jenkins seasonal ARIMA model is subsequently applied in an attempt to forecast future series data and thereby predicting load demand pattern likely to be expected by the hospital facility. The suitability of this prediction technique is verified on the basis of the MAPE. Results show MAPE deviation of 3.91% from actual load data measured.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings
Subtitle of host publicationIECON 2018 - 44th Annual Conference of the IEEE Industrial Electronics Society
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages4974-4979
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)9781509066841
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 26 Dec 2018
Event44th Annual Conference of the IEEE Industrial Electronics Society, IECON 2018 - Washington, United States
Duration: 20 Oct 201823 Oct 2018

Publication series

NameProceedings: IECON 2018 - 44th Annual Conference of the IEEE Industrial Electronics Society

Conference

Conference44th Annual Conference of the IEEE Industrial Electronics Society, IECON 2018
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityWashington
Period20/10/1823/10/18

Keywords

  • Auto-regressive integral moving average
  • Load forecasting
  • Mean absolute percentage error
  • Time series analysis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering
  • Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering
  • Control and Optimization

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