Forest transition theory

Forest transition theory describes a body of interdisciplinary social scientific environmental research that explores the dynamics of how forest cover has historically declined and then expanded because of population growth, urbanization, industrialization, and globalization. Forest transition describes a general process, but each specific instance had unique drivers and scholars now identify distinct pathways. Europe and the eastern United States, followed by select countries in Asia and elsewhere in the world, have seen a rebound of forest cover after centuries of loss. A forest transition should not be confused with a return to a previous ecological condition. Regenerated forests tend to have lower biodiversity than primary native forests, and recovery in one area has often been matched by loss in another part of the world, so the process is no panacea to the ongoing global environmental crisis. Still, the process has been identified in over twenty countries, and there is strong evidence to suggest that overall deforestation continues to slow, so it raises the possibility of cautious optimism for the future of some of the world's forests. From a historians' viewpoint, forest transition theory offers a useful tool to explain broad, global processes, but it offers less analytic value in describing any particular instance because local factors differ considerably. As such, forest transition theory remains a valuable teaching concept and starting point for historical and contemporary environmental research, but it should not be used without reference to specific examples, nor does it offer a prediction of the future.