Forecasting road-based public transport needs of developing cities: A case of Lusaka City

This study investigates travel mode choice for home-to-work trips in Lusaka, Zambia, addressing a critical gap in understanding urban mobility in rapidly urbanizing Sub-Saharan African cities. Using a stated choice experiment with 273 commuters and a Mixed Multinomial Logit (MMNL) model, we identify travel time and cost as primary determinants of mode choice, with significant preference heterogeneity. Findings reveal a latent preference for private cars, women's taxi preference due to safety, a WTP of 2.037 ZMW/min for bus time savings. Elasticities reveal that a 1 % increase in bus fare reduces bus use by 0.103 %, reflecting low sensitivity among transit-dependent commuters, while a 1 % rise in car costs decreases car use by 0.270 %, indicating higher responsiveness, suggesting potential for mode shifts with targeted pricing. Scenario analyses show +8.48 % bus use with 20 % time reduction, while improving NMT infrastructure boosts walking by 16.43 % and cycling by 7.89 %. These insights highlight the need for targeted interventions, such as dedicated bus lanes, fare subsidies, enhanced safety measures and improved NMT infrastructure to promote sustainable mobility. This research offers novel evidence to global urban transportation literature and actionable recommendations for developing cities facing similar challenges.