Equity prices, monetary policy, and economic activities in emerging market economies: The case of South Africa

This paper investigates the possible influence equity price shocks have on economic activities and inflation in emerging market economies such as South Africa. Moreover, the paper discusses the role monetary policy action should play in preventing or reducing the disruptive effects of equity market volatility in emerging markets. It uses the structural vector error correction (SVEC) model to identify the different shocks and obtain the impulse response functions in a case study of South Africa. The paper finds that positive shocks to equity prices negatively affect expected inflation in the first two quarters before the effect becomes positive. This finding indicates that initially high stock market valuations raise the expectation of high capital and labour productivity by investors. Later on, the possibility of high stock prices increasing economic activity creates an expectation of high inflation rates in the future. From this finding, the paper concludes that the monetary authority in emerging markets in general and South Africa in particular should include equity prices in its reaction function.