Economic, ecological and social risks in durban's port-petrochemical-coal expansion

In Durban, South Africa, the risks associated with economic planning errors - especially the city's growing herd of white elephant construction projects - combine with ecological dangers and social upheaval to generate a potentially explosive situation in coming years. As the South Durban port's $25 billion expansion gathers momentum and container traffic rises from recent levels of 2.5 million per year (Africa's highest) to a projected 20 million by 2040, social activists have been establishing lines of argument that pick away at the edges of state-corporate investment logic. That logic has obvious flaws in terms of rising risk in the shipping industry (especially with the Agulhas Current continuing to capsize even extremely large vessels), externalization of costs, overcapacity, inefficiencies and national economic interests. Moreover, the years since 2008 have witnessed a process of 'deglobalized' flows of trade and investment, with South Africa increasingly uncompetitive what with recent credit ratings downgrading certain to lower the country's currency value (hence deterring imports) and to raise interest rates, even on trade finance. In addition, to the extent that Environmental Impact Assessments now include concern about climate change, a project of this magnitude is both a victim and a villain when it comes to rising sea levels, extreme storms and ocean acidification. The risks associated with social unrest, especially as a result of displacement as the back-of-port operations encroach on poor people's residences, are compounded by the likelihood of community activists (including this author) embarking upon 'financial sanctions' campaigning against corporations (such as Transnet) involved in the portpetrochemical expansion. Hence a full spectrum of risks now emerges in an era of frenetic mercantile and fossil fuel activities, in what is already a politically-volatile Durban municipality, stretching eastwards out into the maritime-volatile but potentially oil-rich Agulhas Current.