Does industry 4.0 and environmental quality asymmetrically affect South Africa’s manufacturing sector? A fresh insight from nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model

Owing to recent developments and implications inspired by fourth industrial revolution (4IR) technologies in the global manufacturing sector through the Industry 4.0 (I4.0) concept, this study was conducted to discover the impacts of I4.0 and environmental quality on the South African manufacturing sector, considering governance quality. To the best of our knowledge, no study has analysed the long-run and short impacts of I4.0, environmental quality and governance quality on the South African manufacturing sector integrating the bound test cointegration, Fully-Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) & Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) estimations techniques. Therefore, this study attempts to bridge this gap using different econometric approaches. The data used spans from 2000Q1 to 2020Q4. The principal component analysis was used to create Industry 4.0 (I4.0) and governance quality components. In this study, utilising the dynamic NARDL, it is seen that the LCO2, representing environmental quality, possesses positive and significant relationship with the LMVA, but when in interaction with the governance quality variables (GOV, INS, POL & ECO), there exists a positive and insignificant relationship with the LMVA showing there exists a dearth of green innovative technologies in the South Africa manufacturing sector respective of its significance. Utilising the FMOLS and DOLS, the GOV, INS, POL & ECO which represents governance quality, mostly possesses negative but significant relationships with the LMVA, even when in interaction with the I4.0 variable proving the I4.0 technologies have not yet started to be impactful to the South African manufacturing industry at large.