COVID-19 transmission dynamics and the impact of vaccination: modelling, analysis and simulations

Joseph Malinzi, Victor Ogesa Juma, Chinwendu Emilian Madubueze, John Mwaonanji, Godwin Nwachukwu Nkem, Elias Mwakilama, Tinashe Victor Mupedza, Vincent Nandwa Chiteri, Emmanuel Afolabi Bakare, Isabel Linda Zulu Moyo, Eduard Campillo-Funollet, Farai Nyabadza, Anotida Madzvamuse

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)


Despite the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions, the COVID-19 pandemic and its effects remain a global challenge including the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region. Knowledge of the COVID-19 dynamics and its potential trends amidst variations in COVID-19 vaccine coverage is therefore crucial for policy makers in the SSA region where vaccine uptake is generally lower than in high-income countries. Using a compartmental epidemiological model, this study aims to forecast the potential COVID-19 trends and determine how long a wave could be, taking into consideration the current vaccination rates. The model is calibrated using South African reported data for the first four waves of COVID-19, and the data for the fifth wave are used to test the validity of the model forecast. The model is qualitatively analysed by determining equilibria and their stability, calculating the basic reproduction number R0 and investigating the local and global sensitivity analysis with respect to R0. The impact of vaccination and control interventions are investigated via a series of numerical simulations. Based on the fitted data and simulations, we observed that massive vaccination would only be beneficial (deaths averting) if a highly effective vaccine is used, particularly in combination with non-pharmaceutical interventions. Furthermore, our forecasts demonstrate that increased vaccination coverage in SSA increases population immunity leading to low daily infection numbers in potential future waves. Our findings could be helpful in guiding policy makers and governments in designing vaccination strategies and the implementation of other COVID-19 mitigation strategies.

Original languageEnglish
Article number221656
JournalRoyal Society Open Science
Issue number7
Publication statusPublished - 26 Jul 2023


  • COVID-19
  • bifurcation analysis
  • mathematical modelling
  • parameter estimation
  • sensitivity analysis
  • vaccinations

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Multidisciplinary


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