CO₂ mitigation pathways and scenarios: an empirical study of Nigeria’s residential sector

The Nigerian residential sector is an increasing source of carbon emissions, driven by population growth, rising household income, and reliance on fossil-based fuels. This study applies logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition and system dynamics (SD) modeling to analyze historical trends from 2000 to 2018 and simulate future energy use and CO₂ emissions from 2018 to 2050. The models were developed using national data and validated in Vensim-PLE Software. Between 2000 and 2018, household energy use rose from 49,700 to 53,300 Mt, growing at 7.3% annually. The CO₂ emissions reached 887.74 Mt-CO₂, an increase of 16%. The decomposition analysis attributes emission growth to household size (193%), energy intensity (68%), and fuel structure (29%), while per capita income and average household size moderate the rise in carbon emissions. Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, projections show a 963% rise in carbon intensity and a 114% population-driven emission increase by 2050. A ± 5% change in household energy use under a single-moderate adjustment scenario results in a 25–34% emission shift. The double-drastic scenario, featuring a 10% fossil fuel cut, yields a 40% emission reduction by 2050. Energy intensity improvements of 61–67% are projected by 2030 across scenarios. These findings underscore the urgency for coordinated energy efficiency policies, fossil fuel phase-out, renewable energy adoption, and behavioral change to achieve a low-carbon residential transition in Nigeria.