An Application of ARIMA Techniques to Enhance Circular Economy Manufacturing in the National Electricity Company in South Africa

Emerging economy strives for advanced manufacturing practices including waste management, resource optimisation and zero gas emissions. This study seeks to investigate and provide solutions enabling circular economy manufacturing in electricity production in South Africa. The Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to predict the 2030 circular values using observation from 2017 to 2023. The Ljung-Box Q coefficients indicate the fitness of the time series models in comparison with the chi-square. Forecasting analysis highlighted a decrease in resource consumption and greenhouse gas emissions from 2024 to 2030 in alignment with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals compared to an increase in waste generation. However, the target of reaching zero emissions in 2030 is far from realistic given ARIMA models. Eskom should fully adopt renewable energy sources like solar, wind and geothermal compared to fossil fuels for effective resource efficiency, zero greenhouse gas emissions and circular waste management to meet global requirements on pollution, climate change and finite resources preservation. The South African Government should update water infrastructure and regulations for technological innovation to achieve the circularity expectations without compromising the social corporate responsibility for inclusive growth.