A system dynamics approach to technology interaction including cyclic behaviour

L. Pretorius, J. H.C. Pretorius, S. J. Benade

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper is an extension of previous research on the simulation of three competing technologies that interact. Some exploration into cyclic behaviour of a modified version of the three technology system is attempted. Technology is considered in this research as a result of innovation, a rate dependent process that may include several non-linearities due to interaction with the environment. Technology growth patterns can be traced in a number of ways. Using bibliometrics as a research data source is one interesting way to trace these technology growth patterns very effectively. In this research the existence of cyclic behaviour in two real life technologies is illustrated using bibliometrics. In this paper a technology system consisting of three interacting technologies is treated and modeled in a coupled manner where the interacting dynamics is described by the Lotka-Volterra system of differential equations. The effect of interaction between the technologies and the period of cyclic behaviour is illustrated parametrically. Furthermore the possible uncertain diffusion effect in one of the technologies is also addressed in this research using a Monte Carlo multivariate simulation technique and a system dynamics approach. The research method is exploratory and case based. This method has been shown before to be useful especially early on in research projects.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2013 Proceedings of PICMET 2013
Subtitle of host publicationTechnology Management in the IT-Driven Services
Pages2171-2180
Number of pages10
Publication statusPublished - 2013
Event2013 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology, PICMET 2013 - San Jose, CA, United States
Duration: 28 Jul 20131 Aug 2013

Publication series

Name2013 Proceedings of PICMET 2013: Technology Management in the IT-Driven Services

Conference

Conference2013 Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology, PICMET 2013
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CitySan Jose, CA
Period28/07/131/08/13

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Networks and Communications

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