A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries

Kossi Amouzouvi; Kétévi A. Assamagan; Somiéalo Azote; Simon H. Connell; Jean Baptiste Fankam Fankam; Fenosoa Fanomezana; Aluwani Guga; Cyrille E. Haliya; Toivo S. Mabote; Francisco Fenias Macucule; Dephney Mathebula; Azwinndini Muronga; Kondwani C.C. Mwale; Ann Njeri; Ebode F. Onyie; Laza Rakotondravohitra; George Zimba

doi:10.1016/j.sciaf.2021.e00987

A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries

Kossi Amouzouvi
, Kétévi A. Assamagan
, Somiéalo Azote
, Simon H. Connell
, Jean Baptiste Fankam Fankam
, Fenosoa Fanomezana
, Aluwani Guga
, Cyrille E. Haliya
, Toivo S. Mabote
, Francisco Fenias Macucule
, Dephney Mathebula
, Azwinndini Muronga
, Kondwani C.C. Mwale
, Ann Njeri
, Ebode F. Onyie
, Laza Rakotondravohitra
, George Zimba

Physics

Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology
United States Department of Energy
Université de Lomé
Université de Yaoundé I
Université d'Antananarivo
Nelson Mandela University
Université d'Abomey-Calavi
Universidade Eduardo Mondlane
University of Venda
University of Rwanda
University of Manchester
Duke University
University of Jyväskylä

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We studied the COVID-19 pandemic evolution in selected African countries. For each country considered, we modeled simultaneously the data of the active, recovered and death cases. In this study, we used a year of data since the first cases were reported. We estimated the time-dependent basic reproduction numbers, R₀, and the fractions of infected but unaffected populations, to offer insights into containment and vaccine strategies in African countries. We found that R₀≤4 at the start of the pandemic but has since fallen to R₀∼1. The unaffected fractions of the populations studied vary between 1−10% of the recovered cases.

Original language	English
Article number	e00987
Journal	Scientific African
Volume	14
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2021.e00987
Publication status	Published - Nov 2021

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being

Keywords

Basic reproduction number
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
SIDARTHE

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Multidisciplinary

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10.1016/j.sciaf.2021.e00987

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Amouzouvi, K., Assamagan, K. A., Azote, S., Connell, S. H., Fankam, J. B. F., Fanomezana, F., Guga, A., Haliya, C. E., Mabote, T. S., Macucule, F. F., Mathebula, D., Muronga, A., Mwale, K. C. C., Njeri, A., Onyie, E. F., Rakotondravohitra, L., & Zimba, G. (2021). A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries. Scientific African, 14, Article e00987. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2021.e00987

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title = "A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries",

abstract = "We studied the COVID-19 pandemic evolution in selected African countries. For each country considered, we modeled simultaneously the data of the active, recovered and death cases. In this study, we used a year of data since the first cases were reported. We estimated the time-dependent basic reproduction numbers, R0, and the fractions of infected but unaffected populations, to offer insights into containment and vaccine strategies in African countries. We found that R0≤4 at the start of the pandemic but has since fallen to R0∼1. The unaffected fractions of the populations studied vary between 1−10\% of the recovered cases.",

keywords = "Basic reproduction number, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, SIDARTHE",

author = "Kossi Amouzouvi and Assamagan, \{K{\'e}t{\'e}vi A.\} and Somi{\'e}alo Azote and Connell, \{Simon H.\} and Fankam, \{Jean Baptiste Fankam\} and Fenosoa Fanomezana and Aluwani Guga and Haliya, \{Cyrille E.\} and Mabote, \{Toivo S.\} and Macucule, \{Francisco Fenias\} and Dephney Mathebula and Azwinndini Muronga and Mwale, \{Kondwani C.C.\} and Ann Njeri and Onyie, \{Ebode F.\} and Laza Rakotondravohitra and George Zimba",

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doi = "10.1016/j.sciaf.2021.e00987",

language = "English",

volume = "14",

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T1 - A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries

AU - Amouzouvi, Kossi

AU - Assamagan, Kétévi A.

AU - Azote, Somiéalo

AU - Connell, Simon H.

AU - Fankam, Jean Baptiste Fankam

AU - Fanomezana, Fenosoa

AU - Guga, Aluwani

AU - Haliya, Cyrille E.

AU - Mabote, Toivo S.

AU - Macucule, Francisco Fenias

AU - Mathebula, Dephney

AU - Muronga, Azwinndini

AU - Mwale, Kondwani C.C.

AU - Njeri, Ann

AU - Onyie, Ebode F.

AU - Rakotondravohitra, Laza

AU - Zimba, George

PY - 2021/11

Y1 - 2021/11

N2 - We studied the COVID-19 pandemic evolution in selected African countries. For each country considered, we modeled simultaneously the data of the active, recovered and death cases. In this study, we used a year of data since the first cases were reported. We estimated the time-dependent basic reproduction numbers, R0, and the fractions of infected but unaffected populations, to offer insights into containment and vaccine strategies in African countries. We found that R0≤4 at the start of the pandemic but has since fallen to R0∼1. The unaffected fractions of the populations studied vary between 1−10% of the recovered cases.

AB - We studied the COVID-19 pandemic evolution in selected African countries. For each country considered, we modeled simultaneously the data of the active, recovered and death cases. In this study, we used a year of data since the first cases were reported. We estimated the time-dependent basic reproduction numbers, R0, and the fractions of infected but unaffected populations, to offer insights into containment and vaccine strategies in African countries. We found that R0≤4 at the start of the pandemic but has since fallen to R0∼1. The unaffected fractions of the populations studied vary between 1−10% of the recovered cases.

KW - Basic reproduction number

KW - COVID-19

KW - SARS-CoV-2

KW - SIDARTHE

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85122837892

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DO - 10.1016/j.sciaf.2021.e00987

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85122837892

SN - 2468-2276

VL - 14

JO - Scientific African

JF - Scientific African

M1 - e00987

ER -

A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries

Abstract

UN SDGs

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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