A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries

Kossi Amouzouvi; Kétévi A. Assamagan; Somiéalo Azote; Simon H. Connell; Jean Baptiste Fankam Fankam; Fenosoa Fanomezana; Aluwani Guga; Cyrille E. Haliya; Toivo S. Mabote; Francisco Fenias Macucule; Dephney Mathebula; Azwinndini Muronga; Kondwani C.C. Mwale; Ann Njeri; Ebode F. Onyie; Laza Rakotondravohitra; George Zimba

doi:10.1016/j.sciaf.2021.e00987

A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries

Kossi Amouzouvi, Kétévi A. Assamagan, Somiéalo Azote, Simon H. Connell, Jean Baptiste Fankam Fankam, Fenosoa Fanomezana, Aluwani Guga, Cyrille E. Haliya, Toivo S. Mabote, Francisco Fenias Macucule, Dephney Mathebula, Azwinndini Muronga, Kondwani C.C. Mwale, Ann Njeri, Ebode F. Onyie, Laza Rakotondravohitra, George Zimba

Physics

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We studied the COVID-19 pandemic evolution in selected African countries. For each country considered, we modeled simultaneously the data of the active, recovered and death cases. In this study, we used a year of data since the first cases were reported. We estimated the time-dependent basic reproduction numbers, R₀, and the fractions of infected but unaffected populations, to offer insights into containment and vaccine strategies in African countries. We found that R₀≤4 at the start of the pandemic but has since fallen to R₀∼1. The unaffected fractions of the populations studied vary between 1−10% of the recovered cases.

Original language	English
Article number	e00987
Journal	Scientific African
Volume	14
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2021.e00987
Publication status	Published - Nov 2021

Keywords

Basic reproduction number
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
SIDARTHE

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Multidisciplinary

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.sciaf.2021.e00987

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Amouzouvi, K., Assamagan, K. A., Azote, S., Connell, S. H., Fankam, J. B. F., Fanomezana, F., Guga, A., Haliya, C. E., Mabote, T. S., Macucule, F. F., Mathebula, D., Muronga, A., Mwale, K. C. C., Njeri, A., Onyie, E. F., Rakotondravohitra, L., & Zimba, G. (2021). A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries. Scientific African, 14, Article e00987. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2021.e00987

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title = "A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries",

abstract = "We studied the COVID-19 pandemic evolution in selected African countries. For each country considered, we modeled simultaneously the data of the active, recovered and death cases. In this study, we used a year of data since the first cases were reported. We estimated the time-dependent basic reproduction numbers, R0, and the fractions of infected but unaffected populations, to offer insights into containment and vaccine strategies in African countries. We found that R0≤4 at the start of the pandemic but has since fallen to R0∼1. The unaffected fractions of the populations studied vary between 1−10% of the recovered cases.",

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author = "Kossi Amouzouvi and Assamagan, {K{\'e}t{\'e}vi A.} and Somi{\'e}alo Azote and Connell, {Simon H.} and Fankam, {Jean Baptiste Fankam} and Fenosoa Fanomezana and Aluwani Guga and Haliya, {Cyrille E.} and Mabote, {Toivo S.} and Macucule, {Francisco Fenias} and Dephney Mathebula and Azwinndini Muronga and Mwale, {Kondwani C.C.} and Ann Njeri and Onyie, {Ebode F.} and Laza Rakotondravohitra and George Zimba",

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year = "2021",

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doi = "10.1016/j.sciaf.2021.e00987",

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T1 - A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries

AU - Amouzouvi, Kossi

AU - Assamagan, Kétévi A.

AU - Azote, Somiéalo

AU - Connell, Simon H.

AU - Fankam, Jean Baptiste Fankam

AU - Fanomezana, Fenosoa

AU - Guga, Aluwani

AU - Haliya, Cyrille E.

AU - Mabote, Toivo S.

AU - Macucule, Francisco Fenias

AU - Mathebula, Dephney

AU - Muronga, Azwinndini

AU - Mwale, Kondwani C.C.

AU - Njeri, Ann

AU - Onyie, Ebode F.

AU - Rakotondravohitra, Laza

AU - Zimba, George

PY - 2021/11

Y1 - 2021/11

N2 - We studied the COVID-19 pandemic evolution in selected African countries. For each country considered, we modeled simultaneously the data of the active, recovered and death cases. In this study, we used a year of data since the first cases were reported. We estimated the time-dependent basic reproduction numbers, R0, and the fractions of infected but unaffected populations, to offer insights into containment and vaccine strategies in African countries. We found that R0≤4 at the start of the pandemic but has since fallen to R0∼1. The unaffected fractions of the populations studied vary between 1−10% of the recovered cases.

AB - We studied the COVID-19 pandemic evolution in selected African countries. For each country considered, we modeled simultaneously the data of the active, recovered and death cases. In this study, we used a year of data since the first cases were reported. We estimated the time-dependent basic reproduction numbers, R0, and the fractions of infected but unaffected populations, to offer insights into containment and vaccine strategies in African countries. We found that R0≤4 at the start of the pandemic but has since fallen to R0∼1. The unaffected fractions of the populations studied vary between 1−10% of the recovered cases.

KW - Basic reproduction number

KW - COVID-19

KW - SARS-CoV-2

KW - SIDARTHE

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SN - 2468-2276

VL - 14

JO - Scientific African

JF - Scientific African

M1 - e00987

ER -

A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

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