A Mathematical Model and Strategy to Guide the Reopening of BRICS Economies During the COVID-19 Pandemic

There is limited attention directed towards strategies and guidance for reopening BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) economies during the COVID-19 pandemic. A simpler model has recently been demonstrated to guide various countries on the possible reopening of the economy (in stages/phases) alongside risk categories and ratios. In this chapter, a more comprehensive model has been applied among the BRICS nations, as these countries are currently among the top 10 countries (except for China) infected with the virus and have similar socio-economic circumstances. The chapter also provides a possible strategy in counteracting the spread of the virus and reopening of the economy. Factors that need to be considered when applying the model include the healthcare capacity in terms of the number of hospitals, beds and healthcare workers that are available to capacitate this virus. In addition, population size, population density, physical distancing measures, infection rates, test positivity rates, socio-economic disparities, lockdown regulations in each country, and more importantly—the amount, quality and accuracy of testing conducted, is also imperative to consider (especially among BRICS nations where both common and varied threads are identified). This chapter demonstrates the overall risk model of each of the BRICS nations as at 1st October 2020. Following this model and strategy would allow countries to reduce the complacency towards the virus and assist in the reopening of their economy/country. Leaders around the world have the most difficult decision to make, and have to weigh up on what really matters; health or wealth, or lives versus livelihoods. It is suggested that the discussed strategies and model demonstrated in this chapter be applied in a number of states/counties and countries (and not just BRICS nations) in order to gauge the overall risk of their economy being reopened.