A hybrid approach to price forecasting incorporating exogenous variables for a day ahead electricity Market

Harish Varshney, Avinash Sharma, Rajesh Kumar

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

12 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Predicting Location Based Market Price (LBMP) in real time is an important and complex task that involves a great accuracy to model extreme spikes. Occurrence of spikes in real time LBMP is due to uncertainty in load demand as well as a significant variation in surrounding temperature throughout the day. These fluctuations cause extreme spikes in market clearing price due to transmission outages, shortage of supply and consumption of costly generation reserves. Therefore, the market participants are forced to purchase the electricity at very high price but the regulation set on the price cap by market authorities results into an economic loss to retailers and market participants. Accordingly, accurate forecasting of price is an important exercise to hedge against volatility. This paper proposes a hybrid technique comprising singular spectrum analysis and neural network incorporating temperature and load data for forecasting in day ahead electricity market. The results obtained with this hybrid technique are found to be more accurate when compared to existing methods described in literature.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication1st IEEE International Conference on Power Electronics, Intelligent Control and Energy Systems, ICPEICES 2016
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
ISBN (Electronic)9781467385879
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 13 Feb 2017
Externally publishedYes
Event1st IEEE International Conference on Power Electronics, Intelligent Control and Energy Systems, ICPEICES 2016 - Delhi, India
Duration: 4 Jul 20166 Jul 2016

Publication series

Name1st IEEE International Conference on Power Electronics, Intelligent Control and Energy Systems, ICPEICES 2016

Conference

Conference1st IEEE International Conference on Power Electronics, Intelligent Control and Energy Systems, ICPEICES 2016
Country/TerritoryIndia
CityDelhi
Period4/07/166/07/16

Keywords

  • Electricity price forecasting
  • neural network
  • real time forecast
  • singular spectrum analysis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Networks and Communications
  • Control and Optimization
  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
  • Electrical and Electronic Engineering

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