A differentiated courtship: A regime-type analysis of Russia’s Southern African (arms) trade, 2012–2019

This article presents on general Russian exports to the 16 states in the Southern Africa Development Community, considered by regime type, as well as trade in arms with these states, to determine whether Russia’s commercial ties have been proportionally greater with authoritarian, democratic, or hybrid regimes. The findings indicate a potential ‘differentiated courtship’ between Russia and Southern Africa’s different regime types. Respectively, Russia’s overall trade was concentrated among democracies ahead of authoritarian regimes and hybrid regimes, in line with each regime type’s proportion of regional GDP. On the other hand, Russian arms exports followed a different pattern, in that authoritarian regimes purchased arms at a magnitude slightly beyond that regime type’s proportion of the Southern African regional GDP. The research also found that 60% of all hybrid regimes purchased Russian arms, evincing the highest frequency of importing Russian arms (albeit at small dollar amounts) among all three regime types.